Sample prep sheet from the Virga prototype, rebuilt as it would have looked at 5:30 AM before Mike's Oct 23 morning video. Built automatically from NWS, NOAA and model data; nothing here is hand-edited.
Forecast Prep — Fri Oct 23, 2026
Morning show · REBUILT AS OF 5:30 AM EDT · models: ECMWF, GEM, GFS, ICON, NBM
AFD 144 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 · PFM 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
AFD 144 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 · PFM 226 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
⚠︎ Rebuilt as of a past time: HRRR/NAM and ensembles have no archive, and each model run used may be up to 24 h older than what was available on air.
Top stories cold open
- Sun 10/25 · Frost · NE TN Mountains, Smokies High Peaks: lows near 36°, light wind, clear — patchy frost in sheltered spots
- Mon 10/26 · Frost · NE TN Mountains: lows near 37°, light wind, clear — patchy frost in sheltered spots
- Mon 10/26 · Freeze · Smokies High Peaks: lows near 31° — freeze possible
- Today · Frost · Smokies High Peaks: lows near 35°, light wind, clear — patchy frost in sheltered spots
- Tomorrow · Frost · Smokies High Peaks: lows near 35°, light wind, clear — patchy frost in sheltered spots
Talking points
- Highs today: mid 60s to low 70s; low to upper 50s on the highest peaks of the Smokies.
- Lows tomorrow morning: low to upper 40s; coldest in the Northern Plateau (42°).
- Peak gusts: 5-15 mph valley.
- Rain today: dry across the area.
- Dry stretch: 6 of the next 7 days dry everywhere in the guidance.
Almanac yesterday + today so far
| Station | Yest. high | Yest. low | Rain | Peak gust | Today so far hi/lo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knoxville | 73° | 43° | 0 | 15 | 52° / 47° |
| Chattanooga | 76° | 43° | T | 17 | 52° / 47° |
| Tri-Cities | 73° | 36° | 0 | – | 45° / 37° |
| Crossville | 72° | 38° | 0 | 16 | 49° / 41° |
Knoxville normal today 69°/46° · record high 83° (1920) · record low 30° (1988)
Big picture NWS Morristown, SPC, alerts, tropics
No MRX watches, warnings or advisories in effect.
SPC: no severe or thunder risk for our points, days 1-3.
MRX key messages (144 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026)
Updated at 139 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 - Early morning patchy fog potential continues near rivers and lakes. - Dry weather dominates the forecast period, with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons each day. Afternoon relative humidity will remain on the lower side as well.
Full discussion
Discussion
Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Patchy early morning fog will be possible again today, but it should be mainly near rivers and lakes. We remain in a persistent pattern of a large upper ridge centered to our west and surface high pressure extending into our area from the north and northeast. This will continue to provide dry weather through the weekend and well into next week. Models generally show at least some suppression of the upper ridge in the mid week time frame with short wave energy moving through the Great Lakes region, but precipitation currently looks likely to remain well to our north with dry weather continuing for our area through next Thursday. For the entire period we can expect cool nights and pleasant afternoons with high temperatures each day not far off of seasonal normals. We will also see low relative humidity values during the afternoon hours, but light winds will help to mitigate fire weather concerns.
Aviation
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 VFR under high pressure conditions; mostly SKC; variable or light NWly winds; fog possible at TRI later this morning.
Mrx Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE.
Local forecast by region Today high · low tomorrow morning
| Region | High | Low | Rain | Models wet | Gust | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Plateau | 68–69° | upper 60s | 42–44° | low to mid 40s | 0 | 0% | 11 |
| Southern Plateau | 69° | upper 60s | 43° | low 40s | 0 | 0% | 13 |
| Western Valley | 71–72° | low 70s | 47–48° | upper 40s | 0 | 0% | 13 |
| Southern Valley | 73° | low 70s | 45–46° | mid 40s | 0 | 0% | 14 |
| Central Valley | 71° | low 70s | 45–46° | mid 40s | 0 | 0% | 14 |
| Northern Valley | 68–70° | upper 60s to low 70s | 42–43° | low 40s | 0 | 0% | 11 |
| NE TN Mountains | 66–69° | mid to upper 60s | 42–45° | low to mid 40s | 0 | 0% | 14 |
| Foothills | 70° | low 70s | 44–46° | mid 40s | 0 | 0% | 10 |
| Smokies High Peaks | 50–58° | low to upper 50s | 35–36° | mid 30s | 0 | 0% | 12 |
Ranges span the points in each region (consensus of models at each point). Rain = consensus inches; Models wet = share of models with ≥0.05".
Model check — Knoxville who agrees, who's the outlier, what changed since yesterday
| Day | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | NBM | Cons. | NWS | Spread | vs 24h ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 71/46 0" | 68/40 0" | 73/43 0" | 71/45 0" | 72/46 0" | 71/45 0" | 73/– 0% | 5° | |
| Tomorrow | 71/46 0" | 68/35 0" | 71/45 0" | 71/43 0" | 72/46 0" | 71/45 0" | 72/44 0% | 4° | |
| Sun 10/25 | 71/46 0" | 68/37 0" | 71/45 0" | 70/41 0" | 72/46 0" | 71/45 0" | 71/43 0% | 4° | |
| Mon 10/26 | 72/44 0" | 68/37 0" | 71/44 0" | 70/34 0" | 72/46 0" | 71/44 0" | 72/42 0% | 4° | |
| Tue 10/27 | 74/45 0" | 70/38 0" | 74/46 0" | 74/39 0" | 74/47 0" | 74/45 0" | 74/43 0% | 4° | +2° |
| Wed 10/28 | 72/51 0" | 69/37 0" | 75/50 0" | 70/44 0" | 73/50 0" | 72/50 0" | 74/47 0% | 6° | +2° |
| Thu 10/29 | 73/47 0" | 68/40 0" | 73/47 0" | – | 73/49 0" | 73/47 0" | 75/45 0% | 5° |
High/low °F with daily rain beneath. Highlighted = model ≥4° off the pack. Spread = warmest minus coolest model high (≥6° flagged = low confidence). vs 24h ago = change in the consensus high since yesterday's runs.
7-day — Knoxville with normals
| Day | High | Low | Normal | vs normal | Rain | Confidence | How to say it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | 71° | 45° | 69/46 | near normal | 0" · 0% | medium | upper 60s to low 70s; dry |
| Tomorrow | 71° | 45° | 69/45 | near normal | 0" · 0% | high | upper 60s to low 70s; dry |
| Sun 10/25 | 71° | 45° | 68/45 | 3° above normal | 0" · 0% | high | upper 60s to low 70s; dry |
| Mon 10/26 | 71° | 44° | 68/45 | 3° above normal | 0" · 0% | high | upper 60s to low 70s; dry |
| Tue 10/27 | 74° | 45° | 68/44 | 6° above normal | 0" · 0% | medium | low to mid 70s; dry |
| Wed 10/28 | 72° | 50° | 67/44 | 5° above normal | 0" · 0% | medium | upper 60s to mid 70s; dry |
| Thu 10/29 | 73° | 47° | 67/43 | 6° above normal | 0" · 0% | medium | upper 60s to low 70s; dry |
Rain % = share of models with ≥0.05" that day (a stand-in for PoP).
Hooks what viewers are planning around
- Friday night football (10/23): ~63° at kickoff, ~54° by 10 PM.
- Saturday football (10/24): noon ~64°, 3:30 ~71°, 7 PM ~62°.
- Fall foliage: peak color moves from the high elevations down into the valleys from mid-October to early November.
Virga prep sheet · generated 10/23 8:43 AM · numbers computed from public NWS, NOAA and Open-Meteo data; verify before air.